We all know about the asteroid that slammed into Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, igniting an extinction event that killed 75% of the lifeforms on the planet, including non-avian dinosaurs.
Imagine what it was like for the lifeforms that survived.
Much of their normal food sources would be gone. The climate would alter.
To survive, animals found new, different food sources. Those that could adjust to the climate survived, even flourished. Those that could not adjust, perished. The pecking order dramatically changed as old predators disappeared and new ones emerged.
So much changed.
Covid-19 is having a similar impact now. As bad as it is, hopefully this will be the most significant thing we witness in our lifetimes. Millions are out of work. Businesses are shuttering. Airline traffic is down more than 90%. Workers who can are working from home and finding it works well. Roads are emptier. We are burning a lot less oil. The air is cleaner. Wild animals are less stressed by mankind. Students are learning at home. Families are forced to spend more time together.
Many expect things to one day return to normal, perhaps after a vaccine. The government likes to contend a vaccine is a anywhere from 7 months to 2 years away.
I heard that before. In 1984. About a AIDS vaccine. Thirty-six years later, still no AIDS vaccine. We have to accept, there might not be a vaccine.
This situation is going to alter our concept of education, of the need for colleges, the need for massive office buildings, the need and wisdom of mass transit, and mandate huge improvements in network connectivity.
All the assumptions of modern life are going to be reexamined. Some major institutions we took for granted will disappear, or have essentially already disappeared.
New institutions, new ways of doing things will rise in their ashes.
Things we thought we had to do before, like attend classes as a group, gather in a building to work, we'll realize we cannot, should not do any longer. And we're finding there are effective alternatives.
It is scary. No one likes change, especially massive, fast paced change as we're experiencing, all the while fearing we will get sick and perhaps die, and/or infect strangers and loved ones, perhaps killing them.
I'd be angry if I was a business owner that was going under. That doesn't change the reality. Any attempts for force us back to reality, is going to kill thousands whose deaths are avoidable.
Even normal can return, perhaps a vaccine is found quickly, with our world travel, new pandemics will always be coming. The greatest lesson we can learn from this one is to be ready. Have the required supplies stock piled. Have plans in place. Have specialists who train and drill on the plans and keep the plans up-to-date.
Some businesses are adapting fast. Restaurants are doing take out and delivery only. Stores like Best Buy let you order on an app and pickup at the curb. Companies like Amazon were perfectly positioned for this new environment.
Entirely new businesses will rise to meet the needs previously met by businesses that before required social gathering. If I were a business owner, I'd be thinking of first how to adapt my current business to the new reality, and then how to create new businesses that will be better in the new environment, even if it means obsoleting my current, dying business.
Imagine if Sears, who started as a mail order business, had had the vision Jeff Bezos had in the 90s, and thought "we started as a mail order business. We could become an internet business. We have the vendor relationships, the distribution centers. All the things Amazon has to build. We can push it hard and work to obsolete our expensive, labor intensive stores and sell that real estate for a profit." They didn't and now they are all but gone.
The companies that will survive, or be created now, will have leaders with such vision and courage to destroy the old, to birth the new.
The ones that perish, will be lead by leaders hoping things will return to normal.
There is no more normal. Norms are evolving.
Imagine what it was like for the lifeforms that survived.
Much of their normal food sources would be gone. The climate would alter.
To survive, animals found new, different food sources. Those that could adjust to the climate survived, even flourished. Those that could not adjust, perished. The pecking order dramatically changed as old predators disappeared and new ones emerged.
So much changed.
Covid-19 is having a similar impact now. As bad as it is, hopefully this will be the most significant thing we witness in our lifetimes. Millions are out of work. Businesses are shuttering. Airline traffic is down more than 90%. Workers who can are working from home and finding it works well. Roads are emptier. We are burning a lot less oil. The air is cleaner. Wild animals are less stressed by mankind. Students are learning at home. Families are forced to spend more time together.
Many expect things to one day return to normal, perhaps after a vaccine. The government likes to contend a vaccine is a anywhere from 7 months to 2 years away.
I heard that before. In 1984. About a AIDS vaccine. Thirty-six years later, still no AIDS vaccine. We have to accept, there might not be a vaccine.
This situation is going to alter our concept of education, of the need for colleges, the need for massive office buildings, the need and wisdom of mass transit, and mandate huge improvements in network connectivity.
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| Professor of Journalism, CUNY |
All the assumptions of modern life are going to be reexamined. Some major institutions we took for granted will disappear, or have essentially already disappeared.
New institutions, new ways of doing things will rise in their ashes.
Things we thought we had to do before, like attend classes as a group, gather in a building to work, we'll realize we cannot, should not do any longer. And we're finding there are effective alternatives.
It is scary. No one likes change, especially massive, fast paced change as we're experiencing, all the while fearing we will get sick and perhaps die, and/or infect strangers and loved ones, perhaps killing them.
I'd be angry if I was a business owner that was going under. That doesn't change the reality. Any attempts for force us back to reality, is going to kill thousands whose deaths are avoidable.
Even normal can return, perhaps a vaccine is found quickly, with our world travel, new pandemics will always be coming. The greatest lesson we can learn from this one is to be ready. Have the required supplies stock piled. Have plans in place. Have specialists who train and drill on the plans and keep the plans up-to-date.
Some businesses are adapting fast. Restaurants are doing take out and delivery only. Stores like Best Buy let you order on an app and pickup at the curb. Companies like Amazon were perfectly positioned for this new environment.
Entirely new businesses will rise to meet the needs previously met by businesses that before required social gathering. If I were a business owner, I'd be thinking of first how to adapt my current business to the new reality, and then how to create new businesses that will be better in the new environment, even if it means obsoleting my current, dying business.
Imagine if Sears, who started as a mail order business, had had the vision Jeff Bezos had in the 90s, and thought "we started as a mail order business. We could become an internet business. We have the vendor relationships, the distribution centers. All the things Amazon has to build. We can push it hard and work to obsolete our expensive, labor intensive stores and sell that real estate for a profit." They didn't and now they are all but gone.
The companies that will survive, or be created now, will have leaders with such vision and courage to destroy the old, to birth the new.
The ones that perish, will be lead by leaders hoping things will return to normal.
There is no more normal. Norms are evolving.
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